
PMI – Q1 2024 Results: Preview
Release date: April 23, 2024 (before the opening bell) Sell-side analyst expectations Revenue: $8.47Bn (+4.6% vs. $8.1Bn adjusted net revenue in Q1 2023; +5.6% vs. reported) EPS:

Release date: April 23, 2024 (before the opening bell) Sell-side analyst expectations Revenue: $8.47Bn (+4.6% vs. $8.1Bn adjusted net revenue in Q1 2023; +5.6% vs. reported) EPS:

Since we noted that “in the League of Laggards to the transformation to RRPs (Altria, Imperial, JT), we clearly favor JT due its size/scale, higher

Imperial Brands confirms that is is on track to meet H1 and FY24 guidance: – strong tobacco pricing (more than offsetting industry volume pressures in

Imperial Brands will release a pre-close trading update for the first half of FY24 (October 2023 – March 2024) on April 9, 2024. Imperial’s FY23

Every Sunday, we run a quick poll on the hottest subject in the Tobacco Industry. Hundreds of our Twitter/X followers vote, offering a collective wisdom

October 2023 Projecting a faster path to the break-even in the USA with IQOS ILUMA, Philip Morris International (PMI) will refrain from investing heavily on

Altria (Philip Morris USA): CAGNY Conference (February 2024) Altria projects heated tobacco to make up ~5% of the US nicotine space over the long term

Philip Morris International (PMI) & Altria: On the way to Merger In 2013, Altria and PMI entered into a series of agreements related to innovative

March 2024 Altria reduced its stake in Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) to buyback own shares. Altria agreed to sell 35Mn shares of ABI through a global

Mart 2024 The US International Trade Commission (ITC) decided to lift the IQOS importation ban following the global patent infringement settlement between British American Tobacco

Until IQOS ILUMA receives authorization (marketing order) from the US FDA (not expected before July 2025), Philip Morris International (PMI) will introduce the IQOS3 line-up

This article is no longer updated. For an up-to-date, exclusive coverage on every aspect of the IQOS USA launch, click here to visit our IQOS

Presumably, everyone is aware of the “Bear Case” for Altria by now. We have written about it so many times over the past three years:

CAGNY Conference: February 2024 In an attempt to re-assure the market of its ability to deliver growth in reported basis (before endless FX adjustments), PMI

Tobacco Segment: 87% weight in revenue, 97% weight in adj. operating profit in FY23 Top-line & Bottom-line Results – Tobacco Segment Only Excluding Pharmaceuticals and

Key Business Metrics: Q4 2023 Revenue: up +8.3% to $9Bn (vs. $9Bn expected) Adjusted diluted EPS: up +12.2% to $1.36 (vs. $1.45 expected) Total volume:

Top-line – Revenue: £27.28Bn (vs. £27.9Bn expected) – Reported Revenue: down -1.3%, largely due to the sale of Russian business as well as the impact

Q4 2023 & FY23 Results Revenue: ₩1.45Tn in Q4 (+3.2% year-on-year), ₩5.87Tn in FY23 (+0.4%) EBITDA: ₩260.3Bn in Q4 (-0.6%), ₩1.41Tn in FY23 (-5.6%) EBITDA

Top-line & Bottom-line Results Q4 2023 Revenue: $5.02Bn (exp. $5.07Bn; -1.2% vs. Q4 2022) Q4 2023 EPS: $1.18 (exp. $1.17; unchanged vs. Q4 2022) FY23

Release date: February 8, 2023 (before the opening bell) BAT already released an Interim Business Update (IBU) on December 6, 2023. Recall: Our “BAT: Interim Business Update”

Release date: February 8, 2023 (before the opening bell) Sell-side analyst expectations Revenue: $9.0Bn, EPS: $1.45 Latest FY23 Guidance PMI last updated its FY23 guidance at the

Key Business Metrics Gross Revenue is up +2.1%. Gross Revenue (ex-Agri Business) is up +3.9%. Profit (before exceptional items & tax) is up +0.8%. Profit

Release date: February 1, 2024 (before the opening bell) Sell-side analyst expectations Marginal revenue and EPS decline are already factored in. Revenue: $5.07Bn (down -0.3% vs. Q4

Every Sunday, we run a quick poll on the hottest subject in the Tobacco Industry. Hundreds of our Twitter/X followers vote, offering a collective wisdom

Transformation of the Business Portfolio ITC continues the pursuit of diversifying its business and reducing its reliance on tobacco: revenue and profit from non-tobacco businesses

Highlights – Reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance: organic revenue growth in the low end of 3-5%; mid-single digit EPS growth – Continued strong volume and revenue

Ahead of the FY23 results (to be released on February 8, 2024), BAT will provide an interim business update on December 6, 2023 (Wednesday). At

November 2023 At the 2023 Investor Day, KT&G announced the plan to buy back ₩1Tn worth of stocks and cancel 15% of its outstanding shares

Top-line & Bottom-line results Adjusted: at constant currencies, excluding Russia – Volume: -7.1% (-10.4%, including the Russia exit; weakness in US mass market cigars and

Q3 2023 Results1 Despite reporting its highest-ever quarterly revenue (₩1.69Tn; +4% year-on-year) in Q3 2023, KT&G’s operating profit increased only marginally (+0.4% to ₩406.7Bn) due

Top-line & Bottom-line Results Adjusted, at constant currencies; Tobacco only – excluding Pharmaceuticals & Processed Food Revenue: +4.7% driven by positive price/mix variance and volume

Top-line & Bottom-line Results Revenue: $5.28Bn (exp. $5.43Bn; down -2.5% vs. Q3 2022) EPS: $1.28 (exp. $1.29; unchanged vs. Q3 2022) Narrows the FY23 guidance:

Release date: October 26, 2023 (before the opening bell) Sell-side analyst expectations Revenue: $5.43Bn (up +0.3% vs. Q3 2022) EPS: $1.29 (up +1% vs. Q3 2022) FY23

Key Business Metrics Revenue: up +9.3% to $9.14Bn (vs. $9.2Bn expected). Surpassed the $9Bn threshold for the first-time Adjusted diluted EPS: up +20.3% to $1.67

Key Business Metrics Gross revenue is up +3.4%. Gross revenue (excluding wheat & rice exports) is up +8.9%. Wheat & Rice exports: Geopolitical tensions &

Release date: October 19, 2023 (before the opening bell) Sell-side analyst expectations Revenue: $9.2Bn EPS: $1.61 (up +16% on adjusted, ex-currency basis) PMI last updated its Q3

ITC is the tobacco market leader in India, world’s most populous country, and is the fourth largest publicly-traded tobacco company in the world by market

Cannabis potency Potency Monitoring Program, a project led by the US National Institute on Drug Abuse, reports that the average amount of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC: the

October 2023: New patents granted Lexaria is granted two new patents in Canada, associated to: – delivering lipophilic (fat-based) active drugs and active molecules suspended

(October 5, 2023) Imperial Brands confirms that it is on track to deliver FY23 guidance and announces further £1.1Bn share buyback (~8% of share capital).

Imperial Brands will provide a pre-close trading update for the FY23 (October 2022 – September 2023) on October 5, 2023. In the first half of

September 2023 At the 2023 Investor Day, PMI announced that no share repurchases are foreseen in the 2024-26 period as it prioritizes debt reduction. By

PMI will host an Investor Day on Sept 28, 2023 – the first one since Feb 2021. This is an opportunity for the PMI Management

Philip Morris International (PMI) appointed Victoria Harker, an experienced US public-company CFO, to its Board of Directors (effective January 1, 2024). This appointment is important & meaningful. In

Sell-side analysts believe that Philip Morris International (PMI)’s healthy business fundamentals and encouraging growth outlook aren’t yet reflected in the share price. The average analyst

Another dividend hike Altria increased its quarterly Dividend by 4.3% to $0.98/share on August 24, 2023. The new annualized dividend rate is $3.92 per share,

Methodology Publicly traded companies outside China. Fully or predominantly tobacco/nicotine business. Tobacco/nicotine distributors & retailers are excluded. Publicly traded affiliates of PMI and BAT (i.e.

Top-line & Bottom-line Results Revenue: $5.44Bn (exp. $5.43Bn; up +1.2% vs. Q2 2022) EPS: $1.31 (exp. $1.30; up 4% vs. Q2 2022) Reaffirms the FY23

Release date: August 1, 2023 (Tuesday) – 9:00am ET Sell-side consensus Revenue: $5.43Bn (+1% vs. $5.37Bn in Q2 2022) EPS: $1.30 (+3% vs. $1.26 in

Top-line – Revenue: £13.44Bn (vs. £13.3Bn expected) – Revenue up +2.8% (New Categories up +27.9%) – Revenue from New Categories: 12.3% of total Bottom-line –

Key Business Metrics Revenue: up +10.5% to $8.97Bn (expected $8.7Bn) Adjusted diluted EPS: up +16.9% to $1.60 (expected $1.48) Total volume: up +3.3% to 188.4Bn

Guidance & Expectations EPS (adjusted diluted): $1.42-$1.47, including an unfavorable FX impact of $0.13/share (revised as “towards the top-end” at the DB conference) Heated Tobacco

Key Highlights – On track to meet FY23 guidance – Disappointing US combustibles performance: but, the volume share has grown sequentially since the start of

Top-line & Bottom-line results Adjusted: at constant currencies, excluding Russia – Volume: -6.8% (including the Russia exit, -12.7%) – Robust combustible pricing: +9.3% (partially offset

May 2023: New CEO The Board announces that – the current CEO is stepping down from the Board of Directors with immediate effect – the

Top-line & Bottom-line results Adjusted, at constant currencies; Tobacco only – excluding Pharmaceuticals & Processed Food Revenue +6.3% (positive pricing contributions) Operating profit +4.6% (lower

Top-line & Bottom-line results Revenue: down -1.2% to $4.76Bn in Q1 2023 (expected $4.9Bn) Adjusted diluted EPS: up +5.4% to $1.18 in Q1 2023 (expected

Bottom-line results & Volume progression Revenue: up +3.2% to $8.02Bn in Q1 2023 (expected $8.11Bn) Adjusted diluted EPS: down -4.4% to $1.38 in Q1 2023

Guidance On track to meet full-year guidance H1 2023 Revenue (excl. the impact of Russia exit) & Operating Profit: at a similar level to H1

2023-2028: 5-year Guidance – Mid-single digit annual EPS growth (in line with the 5% EPS growth posted in 2022, but significantly lower than the 8.8%

NJOY acquisition – confirmed Altria acquires NJOY for ~$2.75Bn in cash. The Transaction terms also include additional $500Mn in cash payments that are contingent on

Great progress in transitioning Montego brand strategy from volume-based to income-based, resulting in profitability turnaround (recall: Montego is Vector’s largest brand since Q2 2022 and

Top-line & Bottom-line results Adjusted, at constant currencies; Tobacco only – excluding Pharmaceuticals & Processed Food Core revenue: up +4.8% (RRP revenue: up +4.4%) Operating

In FY22, KT&G posts record earnings, largely on upbeat sales of heat-not-burn tobacco products in Korea & overseas. Total cigarette and HnB volume reaches 101.5Bn

Bottom-line results & Volume progression EPS: up +20.8% to $1.23 in Q4; up +11.9% to $5.34 in FY22 Total volume: +2.6% in Q4; 3.2% in

Top-line & Bottom-line results Adjusted, at constant currencies Net revenue up +2.3% (New Category net revenue up +37%) Operating profit up +4.3%; operating margin +90

Top-line & Bottom-line results Revenue: down -0.1% to $5.08Bn in Q4 (expected $5.15Bn); down -2% to $20.7Bn in FY22 Adjusted diluted EPS: up +8.3% to

Top-line & Bottom-line results Adjusted, at constant currencies Net revenue up +1.5% (NGP net revenue up +10.8%) Operating profit up +1.8% EPS up +4.9% Key