September 2026: French Tobacco Market Faces Debate Over Minimum Tax Adjustments Amid Rising Parallel Sales
As the French political landscape prepares for upcoming budgetary discussions alongside the presidential campaign, regulatory debates focus on potential adjustments to the minimum tax threshold applied to tobacco products. The discussion comes as the official retail network faces mounting economic pressure. Under the Government’s Programme national de Lutte contre le Tabac (PNLT 2023-2027), public policy aims to progressively bring the price of a pack of cigarettes to €13 by 2027 to discourage smoking. However, tobacconists continue to experience contractions in official sales volume.
According to data from the Observatoire français des drogues et des tendances addictives (OFDT), official distribution volumes through tobacconists declined by 8.2% between 2024 and 2025. This downturn is driven by high retail prices that push consumers toward alternative sources, including illicit products, while Santé publique France figures indicate that daily smokers account for 17.4% of adults, marking a decrease of 4 million regular smokers between 2014 and 2024.
While major tobacco manufacturers emphasize the difficulty of absorbing higher financial and fiscal burdens without raising consumer prices, several companies simultaneously deploy voluntary commercial discounts to protect market share, creating an entry-level segment priced under €12. Since June 2026, Luckies by Lucky Strike and Vogue (British American Tobacco), Marlboro (Philip Morris International), and Camel (Japan Tobacco) have implemented price reductions across certain variants, bringing them to the €10.50-€12.00 range. A €1.50 price reduction, from €13 to €11.50, implies a 31% decrease in net manufacturer’s revenue from €0.88 to €0.61 if the price move is driven by a corporate decision rather than state tax relief. In this case, a sales volume increase of 45% on those specific variants is required to compensate for the margin squeeze and achieve a constant net revenue level.
| Brands* | Number of Variants | Lowest Price | Highest Price |
| Lucky Strike | 24 | €12.60 | €13.10 |
| Winston | 21 | €10.50 | €13.00 |
| Camel | 18 | €10.50 | €13.00 |
| Marlboro | 18 | €10.95 | €13.50 |
| Philip Morris | 14 | €10.95 | €13.00 |
| JPS | 13 | €13.00 | €13.00 |
| Gauloises | 11 | €13.00 | €14.20 |
| Vogue | 10 | €11.50 | €13.60 |
| Luckies by Lucky Strike | 6 | €10.50 | €11.20 |
| Gitanes | 3 | €14.60 | €14.60 |
Around 320 different 20-pack variants are currently available in French retailers, ranging from €10.50 to €14.60, with the highest end of the market occupied by the iconic French brand, Gitanes. The overall price average is €12.20 – €0.80 below the €13 level targeted by 2027. With the upcoming parliamentary examination of the Finance and Social Security Financing Bills (PLF and PLFSS), regulation of the sector has returned to the legislative agenda. Policymakers face competing pressures: addressing the social cost of smoking for the public healthcare system while confronting an expanding parallel market that bypasses domestic taxation.
June 2026: Smoking declines in France as vaping continues to rise
Tobacco sales through tobacconists in mainland France fell by 8.2 million tonnes in 2025 compared with 2024, reaching a total of 30.2 million tonnes. The decline was broad-based across most categories, while other tobacco products – such as hookah tobacco, pipe tobacco, blunts, and related formats – remained broadly stable. Their combined market share has more than doubled since 2017, rising from 3 million tonnes to 8 million tonnes.
Despite declining volumes, overall tobacco market turnover in mainland France has remained relatively stable, reaching €18.4 billion in 2025 (compared with €19.3 billion in 2024 and €18.1 billion in 2017). The French Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (OFDT) estimates that off-network purchases account for 10% to 20% of total consumption, largely driven by cross-border shopping.
Smoking prevalence continues to decline in France but remains substantial among adults, while vaping is increasing, particularly among younger age groups. In 2024, just under one in five adults smoked daily – the lowest level since 2000. Daily smoking among 18-75-year-olds fell to 18.2% in 2024, down from 25% in 2021. However, strong social disparities persist, with manual workers smoking more than twice as much as managerial professionals.
Among adolescents, the downward trend is clearer. In 2024, 7.7% of middle school students and 30.6% of high school students reported having smoked a cigarette, compared with 11.4% and 34% respectively in 2022. Daily smoking is now limited to 0.9% of middle school students and 5.6% of high school students. Over the past fifteen years, experimentation has fallen sharply – by a factor of four among middle school students and by half among high school students.
By contrast, the vaping market has expanded significantly, with sector revenues nearly doubling over five years – from €830 million in 2020 to €1.6 billion in 2025. Among adults aged 18-75, 8.3% reported vaping in 2023, with 6.1% doing so daily, up from 2.7% in 2022. Uptake is particularly pronounced among young people: by 2024, 46% of high school students had tried e-cigarettes, compared with 35.1% in 2014. Daily use among high school students rose from 2.8% in 2018 to 6.8% in 2024, while exclusive daily use increased from 0.8% to 4% over the same period.
The OFDT links this growth to the expanding appeal of vaping products, supported by greater product variety, flavours, and distribution channels. It also notes potential concerns around youth initiation and nicotine dependence. Disposable e-cigarettes were banned in France in February 2025 to reduce product attractiveness among youth.
January 2026: France’s Tobacco Prices Edge Higher in February 2026 as Cigarettes and Roll-Your-Own Drive Increases
Tobacco prices in France showed a mixed but slightly inflationary pattern in February 2026, with higher costs for cigarettes and rolling tobacco offset by price declines in heated tobacco and shisha products. Overall, the changes reflect ongoing manufacturer adjustments within a tightly regulated fiscal framework, rather than a broad-based price shock across all nicotine categories.
The weighted average price of a standard pack of 20 cigarettes rose modestly to €12.43, continuing the gradual upward trend observed over recent years. While the increase was limited in absolute terms, it reinforces cigarettes’ position as the most heavily taxed and consistently rising tobacco product in the French market. The pricing strategy appears increasingly segmented, with some lower-priced offers introduced below the market average, suggesting an effort by manufacturers to preserve affordability at the entry level despite rising excise pressure.
Tobacco Price Changes in France: January 2026 – February 2026
| Category | Unit Basis | January 2026 | February 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cigarettes | Pack of 20 | €12.39 | €12.43 | +€0.04 |
| Roll-your-own tobacco | 14 g | €8.27 | €8.36 | +€0.09 |
| Heated tobacco | 20 sticks | €10.49 | €10.41 | −€0.08 |
| Cigarillos | Pack (average) | €5.06 | €5.06 | No change |
| Shisha tobacco | 20 g | €6.23 | €6.18 | −€0.05 |
| Pipe tobacco | Standard unit | €5.71 | €5.70 | −€0.01 |
| Loose tobacco for tubes | Standard unit | €6.95 | €6.96 | +€0.01 |
Roll-your-own tobacco experienced a more pronounced increase, with the average price of a 14-gram pouch climbing to €8.36. This confirms the long-term convergence between factory-made cigarettes and fine-cut tobacco, as tax policy continues to narrow the historical price gap that once made roll-your-own products a significantly cheaper alternative for consumers.
By contrast, heated tobacco products saw a decline in average prices, falling to €10.41 per 20 sticks. The reduction reflects ongoing optimization of product formats and pricing within the category, as manufacturers adapt to weight-based tax thresholds. Despite remaining cheaper than conventional cigarettes, heated tobacco continues to be positioned as a premium alternative relative to combustible roll-your-own products.
Cigarillo prices were unchanged in February, maintaining an average price of €5.06. This stability suggests limited pricing pressure in the segment, which remains structurally distinct from cigarettes due to different consumption patterns and tax treatment. Shisha tobacco prices also edged lower, with the average price per 20 grams declining to €6.18. This decrease reinforces the category’s relative price competitiveness and highlights its role as a residual segment encompassing a wide range of waterpipe-oriented products. Other tobacco categories showed minimal movement. Pipe tobacco prices slipped marginally, while loose tobacco for tubes recorded a negligible increase. These small adjustments underline the overall stability of niche tobacco segments compared with the more dynamic pricing seen in cigarettes, roll-your-own, and heated tobacco.
Taken together, the February 2026 figures point to a continued, policy-driven rise in the cost of traditional smoking products, while alternative formats experience more flexible pricing dynamics. The data suggests that while excise pressure remains strongest on cigarettes and fine-cut tobacco, manufacturers retain some room to maneuver in newer or less central product categories.
December 2025: A Pack of Cigarettes Approach the €13 Threshold in France
Smoking in France will become more expensive from January 1, 2026, following a new round of price increases across cigarettes and rolling tobacco. According to an updated price list published by French customs authorities, several leading brands will raise prices by up to 50 cents per pack, pushing some of the market’s most popular names to – or beyond – the €13 mark.
Among the most affected are flagship brands from Japan Tobacco (JT), with Camel and Winston now priced at €13 per pack. JT has also revised prices across its rolling tobacco portfolio, with increases ranging from a few cents to more than one euro depending on the product and format. Philip Morris International (PMI) also implemented price increases of around 50 cents on a number of cigarette and rolling tobacco products, including its core brands. PMI has attributed these adjustments to rising structural costs, notably the eco-contribution, higher production expenses, and increased remuneration for tobacconists. Alternative nicotine products, such as IQOS heated tobacco sticks, are not included in this price revision.
Other multinational manufacturers have taken a more cautious approach. British American Tobacco (BAT) limited its increases to a narrower selection of products, with adjustments ranging between 10 and 50 cents. Imperial Brands has also opted for moderate price rises across a broad part of its portfolio rather than sharp increases on individual brands.
These adjustments are consistent with the government’s long-term pricing strategy, which targets a minimum retail price of c.€13 per pack in the coming years as part of its tobacco control policy. Despite this trajectory, manufacturers continue to offer discount products below the reference threshold, with some packs still priced at around €11.50.
As prices continue to climb, tobacco consumption in France is showing a sustained decline. The latest customs data indicate that cigarette sales are down more than 11% year-on-year, while rolling tobacco volumes have fallen by over 15%. While this trend aligns with public health objectives, it is also intensifying concerns among tobacconists over the expansion of the illicit tobacco market.
