– Adjustment factor (LFL): ZYN sales and sales to closed states (e.g. California) in the US1
– Net sales: up +23% SEK915.2 million in Q4 2024 (reported: +8%)
– Drivers of net sales growth (+23.2%): +20.4% nicotine pouches, +3.1% vapes, partially offest by snus decline (-0.4%)
– 17.1% gross margin in Q4 2024 (vs. 13.4% in Q4 2023); gross margin improvement (+3.7pp) driven by scale benefits in supply chain and improved marketing investment
– Adj. EBITDA: +51.2% to SEK56.7 million in Q4 2024 (margin: +1.8pp to 6.2%)
– Adj. EBIT: +71.7% to SEK36.4 million in Q4 2024 (margin: +1.5pp to 4.0%)
– Adj. Operating profit: +137% to SEK26.3 million in Q4 2024 (vs. zero in Q4 2023)
– Adj. profit: SEK15.2 million in Q4 2024 (vs. SEK-2.9 million in Q4 2023)
– EPS: SEK0.51 in Q4 2024 (vs. SEK -0.10 in Q4 2023)
– Number of orders: +4.2% to 1.22 million with an average order value of SEK 689 (up +1.4%)
– Active customers: +7.5% to 571k (i.e. ~2.1 orders per active customer)
– Investor Day: April 3, 2025
– No further developments in legal & regulatory matters (- see below the Q3 2024 results for further information)
Operational Highlights:
– Adj. nicotine pouch (NP) volume up +37% (reported: 16%), supported with the launch of high-quality products in the US in late-2024
– Share of NP in total Haypp volume: 62% in Q4 2024
– US market size: 843 million cans (slightly less than our own estimates); onlines is 3% of the total
– Haypp expects sufficent ZYN supply ahead of restoration of full supply-demand balance (i.e. H2 2025) based on its close relationship with PMI
– Portfolio expansion (newly added high-quality products) represents 28% of Haypp US portfolio in Jan 2025
Summary: Haypp delivered a strong operational perfromance in Q4 2024 despite the lack of ZYN supply and legal & regulatory challenges. In the US, Haypp managed to fill the vacuum created by ZYN to a great extent through portfolio expansion. If Haypp can convince the regulators around the globe that online is the best channel to control youth access, it would have a sustainable business model with a strong competitive advantage and a path to long-term growth to multiple folds in terms of scale; nevertheless, this is still a treacherous path.
US FDA’s approval of flavored ZYN nicotine pouches is a positive development in terms of the category’s prospects; nevertheless, many brands may not be able to succeed in dealing with the US FDA’s PMTA process. Moreover, we will remain in the “wait & see” mode for the re-supply of ZYN due to PMI’s apparent reluctance towards third-party online sellers.
Company Profile
Based in Stockholm, Sweden, Haypp Group is the world’s largest pure-play online retailer for smoke-free nicotine products. Present in seven countries with eleven e-commerce sites, Haypp Group has close to six hundred thousand active consumers at the end of Q2 2024. The Group’s e-commerce sites include haypp.com, nicokick.com, snushjem.no, snusbolaget.se, snus.com, snusmarkt.ch, northerner.com, snuslageret.no, snusnetto.com, nettotobak.com and vapeglobe.de.
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