Ahead of the Q4 2025 & FY25 Earnings release
Release date: February 6, 2026 (before the opening bell)
Revenue: $10.38 billion expected (+6.9% vs. $9.71 billion in Q4 2024)
EPS: $1.70 expected (+9.7% vs. $1.55 in Q4 2024)
Latest guidance – FY25 EPS: $7.46 – $7.56 (including ¢10 favorable FX), implying Q4 2025 EPS of $1.63 – $1.73 (mid-point: $1.68, slightly below the consensus)
Adding more than 12% in 2026, PMI shares are trading at around $180 and just 3% below the all-time high ahead of the Q4 2025 & FY25 Results. Extension of the rally will mostly depend on the ZYN U.S. volume and pricing, heated tobacco growth, recovery in international cigarette volume/share trends and FY26 Guidance.
Key Business Metrics: Q4 2025
Revenue: up +6.8% to $10.36 billion (vs. $10.38 billion expected, $9.71 billion in Q4 2024)
Adjusted diluted EPS: up +9.7% to $1.70 (vs. $1.70 expected, $1.55in Q4 2024)
Total volume: up +0.1% to 193.8 billion (heated tobacco volume: +7.5% to 38.4 billion; oral nicotine volume: +7.3% to 5 billion; vape volume: +91.4% to 1 billion; cigarette volume: -2.2% to 149.4 billion)
Smoke-free weight: 42% by revenue, 43% by gross profit, 23% by volume
Key Business Metrics: FY25
Revenue: up +6.5% on an organic basis to $40.6 billion (vs. $37.88 billion in FY24; latest guidance: net organic revenue growth of 6% to 8%)
Adjusted EPS: up +14.8% to $7.54 and +14.2% to $7.50, ex-FX (vs. $6.57 in FY24; latest guidance: $7.46-$7.56, representing a growth of 13.5%-15.1%)
Total volume: up +1.4% to 786.5 billion (heated tobacco volume: +11% to 155.1 billion; oral nicotine volume: +18.5% to 20.7 billion; vape volume: up more than 100% to 3.3 billion; cigarette volume: -1.5% to 607.4 billion)
Smoke-free weight: 41.5% (+2.8pp) by revenue, 43% (+3.2pp) by gross profit, 22.8% by volume
Results Summary
– 5th consecutive year of volume growth with net revenue surpassing $40 billion and close to $17 billion from smoke-free business. Three-year CAGR targets on operating income and EPS delivered in two years (2024-25). New growth targets set for 2026-2028 (see below)
– Smoke-free products (SFPs): FY25 shipment volume up +12.8%, net revenue up +15.0% (organic: +14.1%) and gross profit up +20.3% (organic: +18.7%). SFPs are now available in 106 markets, of which 52 multicategory. Over 43 million estimated adult consumers (up by c.4.5 million versus December 2024): c.35 million IQOS + 7 million smokeless + c.1 million VEEV. Over 50% of net revenue generated by the smoke-free business in 3 of 4 regions in Q4 2025. On full-year basis, 27 markets with 50+% smoke-free and 8 markets with 75+% smoke-free
– Heat-not-burn: c.76% global category volume share. 9.6% (+1pp) share in the overall cigarette market in Q4 2025. Second largest nicotine brand in markets where present, with the #1 volume share position in 13 markets. IMS growth accelerated to 12% in Q4 2025 (vs. 10.5% for FY25). Available in 79 markets
In Japan, PMI IMS grew by 5.8% in Q4 2025 and 7.0% in FY25. IQOS continues to hold close to 70% of heat-not-burn category volume, notwithstanding intensifying competition. In December 2025, the overall heated tobacco category exceeded 50% of total nicotine offtake share at the national level, including 19 out of 20 major cities and 16 prefectures. In Europe, PMI IMS grew by 10.3% in Q4 2025 and 8.6% in FY25. IQOS adjusted market share up by 1.5pp to 12.0%. Double-digit growth in Italy, Germany, Greece, Romania and Spain. Outside Europe and Japan, strong growth in key cities across the globe, including Mexico City, Jakarta, Riyadh, Kuala Lumpur, Cairo and Manila. Very promising early results in Taiwan (4% off-take share in December 2025)
– Modern oral nicotine: FY25 volume increased by +18.5% (up +7.3% in Q4 2025): nicotine pouches up c.37% in the U.S. and over 35% in international markets, off-setting snus volume declines in the Nordics. ZYN is now available in 55 markets and growth fueled by strong market share gains. ZYN pilot launch in Tokyo, Japan. X-low nicotine (1.5mg) variants now available in around two thirds of ZYN markets to improve first-time user acceptance. 40% global category share. U.S. market roughly represents two thirds of the global volume
In the U.S., nicotine pouches account for a high single-digit percentage of total industry volumes and remain the fastest growing nicotine category. ZYN, with a premium price positioning, continued to lead the category with around two-thirds value share in 2025. Q4 2025 ZYN shipment volume: 196 million cans. Shipment up over 19%, whilst offtake volume up 23% (i.e. de-stocking). FY25 ZYN volume: 794 million cans. Off-take: 740-750 million cans (what consumers bought). Inventory build-up: c.50 million cans. Excessive inventory: 25 million cans. ZYN Off-take share: 61.5%. Total U.S. market: c1.2 billion cans. First-ever quarter-on-quarter decline in the underlying ZYN demand in Q4 2025 (note: Q3 2025 volume was boosted by intense promotional activity). 10¢ price increase in December 2025
– E-vapor: VEEV now available in 47 markets. Shipment volume more than doubled, notably driven by Europe and Indonesia. Within the closed pods segment, VEEV holds the #1 volume share position in 8 markets. 12% share in closed pod segment
– Combustibles: Net revenues up +2.5% (organic: 1.8%) driven by strong pricing (+7.6), partly offset by geographic mix. Gross profit up +5.2% (organic: 4.4%). Marlboro reaches a record high 11.0% category share in Q4 2025. Slightly lower category share in FY25, predominantly due to Turkey
FY26 Guidance
– Reported diluted EPS: $7.87 to $8.02
– Adj. EPS: $8.38 to $8.53, representing an increase of 11.1% to 13.1% (adjustments: unfavorable $0.51 per share)
– Adj. EPS, ex-FX: $8.11 to $8.26, representing an increase of 7.5% to 9.5% (FX: favorable $0.27 per share; 1/3 transactional, 2/3 translational)
– Industry volume, ex-China&US: -2%
– PMI volume: Broadly stable, with high-single digit SFP shipment volume growth, and a cigarette shipment volume decline of c.3%, including the impact of weaker industry volume in India and Mexico, and the ongoing recovery in Turkey
– Net revenue growth: 5% to 7% on an organic basis
– Operating income growth: 7% to 9% on an organic basis
– Broadly stable net financing costs; effective tax rate of around 21.5%
– Operating cash flow: c.$13.5 billion; CAPEX: $1.4 to $1.6 billion, predominantly due to investments supporting the smoke-free business
– Leverage: 2.5x at the end of 2025. Further net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio improvement with close to 2.0x targeted by the end of 2026. No share repurchases
– Q1 2026 EPS: $1.80 to $1.85 (including ¢14 favorable FX)
2026-28 Targets
– Net revenue: 6% to 8%, on an organic basis, with SFP volume growth of high single-digit to lowteens driving total shipment volume growth
– Operating income: 8% to 10%, on an organic basis
– Adj. EPS: 9% to 11%, excluding currency, assuming current tax rates and no share repurchases
– CAPEX: $1.3-1.5 billion per annum
– Operating cash flow: ~$45 billion over 2026-28
Download PMI Q4 2025 – Press Release
Download PMI Q4 2025 – Presentation
Download PMI Q4 2025 – Script
