PMI – Q3 2023 Results: Preview

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Release date: October 19, 2023 (before the opening bell)

Sell-side analyst expectations

Revenue: $9.2Bn

EPS: $1.61 (up +16% on adjusted, ex-currency basis)

PMI last updated its Q3 2023 and FY23 guidance at the 2023 Investor Day (September 28, 2023; only 2 days before the end of the third quarter).

Q3 2023 Guidance

Adjusted diluted EPS: $1.60 – $1.65 (lower end of the forecast range)

OI Margin: broadly in line with Q3 2022 (41.5%) and up sequentially versus Q2 2023 (39.4%)

Heated tobacco volume: 31-33Bn sticks

Commentary: strong IQOS performance, resilient combustible trends and better than-expected growth for ZYN in the US

FY23 Guidance

PMI revised down the FY23 reported EPS forecast to $5.19 – $5.28. The $0.17 reduction in the forecast was due to the estimated unfavorable currency impact as a result of: (1) further US$ strength, (2) depreciation of Argentine peso-denominated monetary net assets.

PMI’s FY23 reported EPS (mid-point: $5.24) will be pretty much the same as the FY13 reported EPS ($5.26). No progress in reported EPS in a decade; thereby, no progress in share price (i.e. around $90 also in 2013). Market is obviously not happy with PMI’s never-ending one-off adjustments and currency risk. For further details on this topic, we suggest the articles below.

PMI – Share Price (2013)

Further Reading:

PMI: Not All Roses

PMI – 2023 Investor Day: Preview

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