Every Sunday, we run a quick poll on the hottest subject in the Tobacco Industry. Hundreds of our Twitter/X followers vote, offering a collective wisdom on the subject matter or an immediate pulse on the market/industry developments.
Results of the Sunday polls:
Which tobacco company would you never invest in, regardless of how low the valuation is?
– Altria: 38%
– Japan Tobacco: 24%
– Imperial Brands: 21%
– British American Tobacco: 17%
What would be the most important catalyst for BAT shares?
– Performance of VELO Plus (vs. ZYN in the US): 44%
– Law & Order for vapes (enforcement against illegal vapes): 37%
– Improved financial delivery for combustibles (US & elsewhere): 11%
– Performance of glo Hilo (vs. IQOS): 8%
Which tobacco major will deliver the best Total Shareholder Return (share price appreciation plus dividends) in the next 12 months?
– British American Tobacco: 65%
– Philip Morris International: 21%
– Altria: 7%
– Imperial Brands: 7%
Which “Beyond Nicotine” domain should the major tobacco companies focus on?
– None (i.e. Stay in Nicotine): 55%
– Cannabis: 32%
– Supplements (e.g. Energy shots): 8%
– Prescription drugs (Rx): 5%
What do you want to know more regarding the nicotine pouch category?
– Regulatory outlook: 35%
– Growth trajectory: 31%
– Consumer behavior (preferences): 17%
– Players & Products: 17%
Will an improvement in macroeconomic conditions (discretionary spending) slow down the US cigarette market decline?
– Yes, to some extent: 41%
– No: 39%
– Conditions are fairly good (no meaningful improvement from here): 15%
– Yes, significantly: 6%
What concerns you the most in BAT FY24 Results? Reference: BAT: FY24 Results
– NGP performance (ex-Velo): 44%
– US financial delivery (volume, pricing, cost): 30%
– Impact of Canadian settlement on deleveraging and operating profit: 14%
– Headwinds outside US: 12%
What will you scrutinize first & foremost in BAT FY24 results (February 13)?
– New Category (RRP) performance: 39%
– Capital allocation (deleveraging & buybacks): 29%
– US cigarette segment performance: 17%
– Guidance (acceleration in financial delivery): 15%
What will you scrutinize first & foremost in Philip Morris Q4 2024 release (Feb 6, Thursday)?
– ZYN outlook (US, international): 34%
– IQOS US launch: 26%
– FY25 guidance (operating margin, adjustments): 21%
– Heated tobacco growth: 19%
Is the official withdrawal of the US menthol ban a strong enough catalyst for BAT shares to rally 10%-20%? Recall: Regulation: The US
– Yes: 68%
– No: 32%
US FDA authorizes marketing of 20 ZYN products just a few days before Robert F Kennedy Jr. becomes the new boss of health services. Is this intentional or coincidental? Recall that RFK Jr was spotted with a ZYN can in November 2024. Read more: ZYN & People
– Yes: 56%
– No: 44%
Which tobacco company lags its competitors the most in terms of management quality? (Re-running the August 11, 2024 and November 19, 2023 polls)
– Altria: 42%
– British American Tobacco: 32%
– Imperial Brands: 19%
– Philip Morris International: 7%
Tobacco stocks outperformed the market in 2022 & 2024 and underperformed in 2023. What is your expectation for 2025? (Re-running the December 31, 2023 poll)
– Outperform: 59%
– Market perform: 27%
– Underperform: 15%
