Pulse Surveys: Q2 2024

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Every Sunday, we run a quick poll on the hottest subject in the Tobacco Industry. Hundreds of our Twitter/X followers vote, offering a collective wisdom on the subject matter or an immediate pulse on the market/industry developments.

Results of the Sunday polls:

May 19, 2024

Sunday Poll: Which tobacco major’s RRP/NGP approach do you endorse the most?

– British American Tobacco (Strong commitment – 50% smoke-free by 2035): 57%

– Philip Morris International (All in, at the expense of combustibles): 32%

– Altria & Imperial Brands (Focus on combustibles with some optionalities in RRPs): 6%

– Japan Tobacco (Balanced while aiming for an initial leap – $2Bn RRP investment in 2023-25): 4%

May 12, 2024

Which tobacco company do you trust the most in terms of quality of management actions?

– Philip Morris International: 50%

– British American Tobacco: 38%

– Altria: 7%

– Imperial Brands: 5%

May 5, 2024

Do you expect BAT to extend its share repurchase program for this year? Recall: (1) Current program: £700Mn in 2024, £900Mn in 2025; (2) Recent acceleration in repurchases

– Yes: 72%

– No: 28%

April 28, 2024

Despite the positive catalysts, BAT share price is not recovering. What is the main impediment?

– Lack of interest (in dividend, tobacco or British stocks): 40%

– US market decline: 31%

– Lack of trust (in Management or Strategy): 18%

– Stronger interventions expected (such as, a major change in capital allocation): 11%

April 21, 2024

What will you scrutinize first & foremost in the Philip Morris Q1 2024 results (April 23, 2024)?

– IQOS US launch: 30%

– Heated tobacco growth: 29%

– EPS adjustments & Operating Margin: 21%

– ZYN’s performance: 21%

April 14, 2024

What is the most important driver of the under-performance of tobacco stocks?

– Growth increasingly being favored over current cash-flow (disfavored industry in a secular decline): 38%

– Exclusion (unpopular, unethical, non-ESG): 32%

– High-yield alternatives (elevated Treasury yields): 21%

– Disappointing resilience against inflation: 9%

April 7, 2024

What will be the next big M&A deal in the Tobacco Industry?

– Altria – Japan Tobacco Merger: 39%

– Imperial Brands to be acquired: 38%

– KT&G to be acquired: 13%

– Other (STG, JUUL, etc.): 10%

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