Every Sunday, we run a quick poll on the hottest subject in the Tobacco Industry. Hundreds of our Twitter/X followers vote, offering a collective wisdom on the subject matter or an immediate pulse on the market/industry developments.
Results of the Sunday polls:
Tobacco Industry is going through an unsettling transformation. All stakeholders are confused. But, who is the most confused? (re-running the December 10, 2023 poll)
– Regulators: 44%
– Anti-tobacco groups: 32%
– Investors: 17%
– Tobacco companies: 7%
How will the 2024 US elections affect the tobacco industry (stocks)? Nov 5, 2024 Elections: President, VP, All 435 House seats, 34 (out of 100) Senate seats
– Neutral: 34%
– Positive: 28%
– I don’t know: 24%
– Negative: 13%
How do you like British American Tobacco’s corporate motto: “A Better Tomorrow”?
– Don’t care about it!: 47%
– Love it!: 28%
– Never heard it!: 14%
– Hate it!: 11%
The Global/US economic outlook offers _____ backdrop for the tobacco stocks How would you fill in the blank?
– Positive: 42%
– Neutral: 32%
– No Meaningful: 15%
– Negative: 11%
What is your year-end price target for BAT?
– Consolidation (around the current level): 34%
– Another +10% (£31/$40+): 34%
– Another +20% (£34/$45+): 24%
– Correction (£25/$34): 8%
Last close: £28.4 (LSE); $37.6 (NYSE). YTD performance: +24% (£); +28% ($)
Sunday Poll: Completing a 7-year long formation, Philip Morris (PMI) is now in the vicinity of a new all-time high. Which trading pattern do you expect from here on?
– Consolidation – trading range: price progression stalling to wait for improving fundamentals to catch up (49%)
– Immediate break-out: fundamentals and the market conditions are suitable for further (significant) price appreciation (25%)
– Double top & reversal: price progression not supported by the fundamentals (14%)
– Cup & handle: pullback to re-confirm the improving fundamentals and investor appetite (12%)
Which tobacco major will deliver the best Total Shareholder Return (share price appreciation plus dividends) in the next 12 months?
– BAT: 65%
– PMI: 23%
– Altria: 7%
– Imperial Brands: 6%
Note: Repeating the October 29, 2023 and March 31, 2024 polls
Sunday poll: Which tobacco company lags most in terms of management quality?
– Altria: 42%
– British American Tobacco: 30%
– Imperial Brands: 22%
– Philip Morris International: 6%
Note: Repeating the Nov 19, 2023 poll
What is the main catalyst driving tobacco share prices up?
– Momentum trading – Rotation-to-value (low volatility): 30%
– Recession resistance (assumed): 29%
– Falling interest rates (less yield competition): 25%
– Improving business performance: 16%
What did you like the most in BAT’s H1 2024 results?
– Reduction of £4.7Bn (-12.4%) of net debt in one year (53%)
– 52% growth in nicotine pouch volume (23%)
– Nothing much to like (15%)
– Commercial plans underway to secure acceleration of operational and financial delivery in H2 & beyond (9%)
What will you scrutinize first & foremost in Altria Q2 2024 results (July 31, 2024)?
– Cigarette volume decline: 54%
– NJOY and on!’s performance: 26%
– FY24 guidance: 13%
– Extracurricular projects (new category development and international expansion): 7%
What will you scrutinize first & foremost in BAT H1 2024 results (July 25, 2024)?
– New Category (NGP/RRP) performance (30%)
– US cigarette volume decline (30%)
– FY24 guidance & Acceleration in financial delivery in H2 2024 (21%)
– Deleveraging & Share Repurchase Program (19%)
What will you scrutinize first & foremost in Philip Morris Q2 2024 results (July 23, 2024)?
– ZYN’s outlook in the US: growth, stock-outs, legal troubles (45%)
– IQOS US launch (25%)
– FY24 guidance: EPS adjustments, operating margin recovery (16%)
– Heated tobacco growth (14%)
