Pulse Surveys: Q4 2023

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Every Sunday, we run a quick poll on the hottest subject in the Tobacco Industry. Hundreds of our Twitter/X followers vote, offering a collective wisdom on the subject matter or an immediate pulse on the market/industry developments.

Results of the previous Sunday polls:

December 31, 2023

Tobacco stocks outperformed the market in 2022 and underperformed in 2023. What is your expectation for 2024?

– Outperform: 54%

– Market perform: 23%

– Underperform: 23%

December 24, 2023

What will be the next buying season for tobacco stocks?

– No seasonal buying: 56%

– January Effect (pick up after tax-loss harvesting): 29%

– Ahead of the FY23 releases (Feb 2024): 11%

– Santa Claus Rally: 5%

December 17, 2023

In which area do you think BAT trails the most in terms of management quality?

– Strategy: 34%

– Execution: 34%

– Communications & Stakeholder Engagement: 20%

– Control & Compliance: 11%

December 10, 2023

Tobacco Industry is going through an unsettling transformation. All the stakeholders are confused. But, who is the most confused?

– Regulators: 44%

– Investors: 34%

– Tobacco executives: 19%

– Consumers: 3%

December 3, 2023

Which of these would be the most important catalyst for the PMI share price?

– IQOS launch in the US: 44%

– International expansion of ZYN: 21%

– Weakening US$: 18%

– Operating margin recovery (to 42%): 17%

November 26, 2023

Which of these would be the most important catalyst for the BAT share price?

– Re-initiation of the share repurchase program: 36%

– US cigarette volume decline returning to the historical norms: 23%

– Implementation of US menthol ban put on hold by a court decision (stay of execution): 22%

– New Category (NGP/RRP) break-even: 20%

November 19, 2023

Which tobacco company lags in terms of management quality?

– British American Tobacco (BAT): 38%

– Altria: 36%

– Imperial Brands: 18%

– Philip Morris International (PMI): 8%

November 12, 2023

Which tobacco company has the highest risk of a dividend cut in the next 5 years?

– Altria: 49%

– British American Tobacco (BAT): 20%

– Imperial Brands: 16%

– Philip Morris International (PMI): 15%

November 5, 2023

Are the lows in for British American Tobacco (BAT)? Are the downside risks fully priced in? Which price action will we see first? A new 52-week low or a move above MA200?

– A move above MA200 ($35/£28): 57%

– A new 52-week low ($28/£23): 43%

October 29, 2023

Which tobacco major will deliver the best Total Shareholder Return (price appreciation plus dividends) in the next 12 months?

– BAT: 63%

– PMI: 24%

– Altria: 9%

– Imperial Brands: 4%

October 22, 2023

What is your 12-month PMI share price target?

– Below $90: 28%

– $90-$100: 33%

– $100-$110: 24%

– Above $110: 15%

Implied price target: $97.5

Sell-side analyst target: $112

October 15, 2023

What is your 12-month BAT share price target? (£/$: 1.20)

– Below $30 (£25): 23%

– $30-$36 (£25-£30): 45%

– $36-$42 (£30-£35): 20%

– Above $42 (£35): 12%

Implied price target: $34.3 (£28.2)

Sell-side analyst target: $42.8 (£35.2)

October 8, 2023

Should British American Tobacco (BAT) reconsider its capital allocation?

– Reduce the dividend and use the excess cash to reduce debt: 36%

– Reduce the dividend and use the excess cash for share re-purchase: 30%

– Keep the dividend: 30%

– Reduce the dividend and use the excess cash in investments (R&D/Capex): 4%

October 1, 2023

What is your headline from the PMI’s 2023 Investor Day?

– PMI aims to become a more than two-thirds majority smoke-free company by 2030: 43%

– Philip Morris develops zero-tobacco heatstick that may avoid regulations: 23%

– Philip Morris signals slower US roll out for IQOS: 19%

– Philip Morris CEO says 2025 smoke-free target is out of reach (delayed by a few quarters): 16%

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