Every Sunday, we run a quick poll on the hottest subject in the Tobacco Industry. Hundreds of our Twitter/X followers vote, offering a collective wisdom on the subject matter or an immediate pulse on the market/industry developments.
Results of the Sunday polls:
Which tobacco company has the highest risk of dividend cut in the next 5 years? (re-running a post poll to track confidence in financial outlooks)
– Altria: 65%
– Imperial Brands: 20%
– British American Tobacco: 9%
– Philip Morris International: 6%
At $49 (£36), British American Tobacco shares are…
– Fairly valued: 46%
– Undervalued: 43%
– Overvalued: 12%
At $60, Altria shares are…
– Overvalued: 44%
– Fairly valued: 39%
– Undervalued: 17%
At $182, Philip Morris International shares are…
– Fairly valued: 45%
– Overvalued: 44%
– Undervalued: 11%
Do you support BAT fully divesting out of ITC over time? Note: BAT holds a 22.9% ($14Bn) stake in ITC (the world’s 4th largest tobacco company). FDI in tobacco and all new nicotine products are prohibitied in India.
– Yes: 58%
– No: 42%
Which catalyst could push British American Tobacco (BAT) shares to a meaningful new high (£40/$55) over the next 6 months?
– VELO/VELO+ performance: 44%
– Enforcement against illegal vapes in the US: 41%
– Technical momentum: 10%
– glo/glo HILO performance: 5%
What is the most important driver of PMI’s (growth-corrected) valuation premium vs. tobacco peers
– ZYN (nicotine pouches): 49%
– IOQS (heated tobacco): 26%
– Corporate trustworthiness (including management quality & investor communications): 15%
– Marlboro brand power & presence in the international / emerging markets (cigarettes): 9%
Which tobacco company lags its competitors the most in terms of management quality? (re-running a previous poll to assess the progress in mangement approval ratings)
– Altria: 51%
– British American Tobacco: 28%
– Imperial Brands: 14%
– Philip Morris International: 7%
Sunday Poll: What thought mistake do you observe others make when investing in tobacco?
– Confirmation Bias (tendecy to seek out information that confirms beliefs): 33%
– Overconfidence Bias (overestimating knowledge or ability to predict): 27%
– Recency Bias (overemphasizing recent events): 25%
– Hindsight Bias (tendency to think past events more predictable than they are): 15%
What is the most consequential innovation in nicotine delivery in the past decade?
– Nicotine pouches (ZYN/VELO): 51%
– Heated tobacco (IQOS): 21%
– Disposable/High-capacity vapes (ElfBar, GeekBar): 20%
– Nicotine salt vaping (JUUL): 8%
Which one is likely to happen first?
– BAT £40/$53 (54%)
– PMI $200 (31%)
– Altria $70 (7%)
– S&P500 6,500 (7%)
What is the most underappreciated “asset” of British American Tobacco (BAT)?
– VELO (nicotine pouches): 44%
– ITC Stake: 35%
– VUSE (vapes): 11%
– Versatile cigarette brand portfolio (Dunhill, Kent, Lucky Strike, Pall Mall, Rothmans plus U.S.-specific brands): 10%
Increased market volatility (“stock market crash”) is —– for tobacco stocks. Fill in the blank.
– Positive (“run-to-safety/yield”): 49%
– Neutral (“ups & downs, but flattish eventually”): 35%
– Negative (“no one is immune”): 16%
Timestamp: Last close before the April 2, 2025 (“Liberation Day”) announcement => S&P500 5,671 – PMI $156.2 – Altria $57.12 – BAT $40.25
