Every Sunday, we run a quick poll on the hottest subject in the Tobacco Industry. Hundreds of our Twitter/X followers vote, offering a collective wisdom on the subject matter or an immediate pulse on the market/industry developments.
Results of the Sunday polls:
Considering a 20-year time horizon, which one is the most valuable nicotine brand in the world?
– ZYN or VELO (nicotine pouches): 42%
– Marlboro (cigarettes): 30%
– IQOS (heated tobacco): 22%
– VUSE (vapes): 6%
BAT’s capital allocation should focus more on
– debt reduction: 37%
– share buybacks: 30%
– dividends: 18%
– nothing (i.e., current allocation is all good): 14%
What could be the main catalyst driving the next leg up for tobacco stocks?
– Improving business fundamentals: 36%
– Rotation-to-value/safety: 25%
– Recession/inflation resistance (assumed): 21%
– Falling interest rates (less yield competition): 18%
ZYN slow-down in the U.S….
– marks the end of multiple expansion for PMI: 45%
– has limited impact on PMI’s overall financials: 25%
– is exaggerated (or not true at all): 20%
– will be compensated by IQOS growth in the U.S.: 11%
Will British American Tobacco (BAT)’s financial delivery accelerate in the second half of 2025 towards its mid-term targets?
– Yes: 58%
– Difficult to tell: 31%
– No: 11%
Which tobacco company lags its competitors the most in terms of management quality? (re-running a previous poll to assess the progress in management approval ratings)
– Altria: 53%
– Imperial Brands: 22%
– British American Tobacco: 20%
– Philip Morris International: 6%
Which tobacco major has the most stretched valuation (vs. growth, earnings, cash flow, balance sheet quality, etc.)?
– Philip Morris International: 48%
– Altria: 31%
– British American Tobacco: 13%
– Imperial Brands: 8%
Do you own any tobacco (nicotine) stocks (yourself, if you are a retail investor or your firm, if you are an institutional investor)?
– Yes, always (HODL: Hold On for Dear Life): 53%
– Yes, at this moment: 36%
– No, but maybe in the future: 10%
– No and categorically no (i.e. never): 1%
What is your small-cap tobacco (nicotine) stock pick for the next 12 months? (mcap <$2 billion)
– Haypp: 37%
– Scandinavian Tobacco: 29%
– Turning Point Brands: 25%
– Other: 9%
What will you scrutinize first & foremost in BAT H1 2025 results (July 31)?
– VELO+ US performance: 47%
– Financials (delivery, guidance, capital allocation): 24%
– US cigarette volume/pricing: 17%
– Heated tobacco performance: 12%
What will you scrutinize first & foremost in Philip Morris Q2 2025 results (July 22, Tuesday)?
– ZYN outlook (US, international): 43%
– IQOS USA update: 20%
– Heated tobacco growth: 20%
– FY25 guidance (Revenue, EPS, operating margin, adjustments): 17%
What would be the best course of strategic intervention for Altria (market cap: $97 Billion)?
– Do nothing, all good: 42%
– Merge with Japan Tobacco (market cap: $51 Billion): 26%
– Acquire Imperial Brands (market cap: $32 Billion): 19%
– Acquire KT&G (market cap: $11 Billion): 13%
Ahead of the earnings season, how do you feel about the financial performance of the tobacco majors?
– Optimistic: 56%
– Neutral: 29%
– No idea: 8%
– Pessimistic: 7%
Tobacco Pulse Surveys: Q2 2025
Tobacco Pulse Surveys: Q1 2025
Tobacco Pulse Surveys: Q4 2024
Tobacco Pulse Surveys: Q3 2024
Tobacco Pulse Surveys: Q2 2024
