Every Sunday, we run a quick poll on the hottest subject in the Tobacco Industry. Hundreds of our Twitter/X followers vote, offering a collective wisdom on the subject matter or an immediate pulse on the market/industry developments.
Results of the previous Sunday polls:
Tobacco stocks outperformed the market in 2022 and underperformed in 2023. What is your expectation for 2024?
– Outperform: 54%
– Market perform: 23%
– Underperform: 23%
What will be the next buying season for tobacco stocks?
– No seasonal buying: 56%
– January Effect (pick up after tax-loss harvesting): 29%
– Ahead of the FY23 releases (Feb 2024): 11%
– Santa Claus Rally: 5%
In which area do you think BAT trails the most in terms of management quality?
– Strategy: 34%
– Execution: 34%
– Communications & Stakeholder Engagement: 20%
– Control & Compliance: 11%
Tobacco Industry is going through an unsettling transformation. All the stakeholders are confused. But, who is the most confused?
– Regulators: 44%
– Investors: 34%
– Tobacco executives: 19%
– Consumers: 3%
Which of these would be the most important catalyst for the PMI share price?
– IQOS launch in the US: 44%
– International expansion of ZYN: 21%
– Weakening US$: 18%
– Operating margin recovery (to 42%): 17%
Which of these would be the most important catalyst for the BAT share price?
– Re-initiation of the share repurchase program: 36%
– US cigarette volume decline returning to the historical norms: 23%
– Implementation of US menthol ban put on hold by a court decision (stay of execution): 22%
– New Category (NGP/RRP) break-even: 20%
Which tobacco company lags in terms of management quality?
– British American Tobacco (BAT): 38%
– Altria: 36%
– Imperial Brands: 18%
– Philip Morris International (PMI): 8%
Which tobacco company has the highest risk of a dividend cut in the next 5 years?
– Altria: 49%
– British American Tobacco (BAT): 20%
– Imperial Brands: 16%
– Philip Morris International (PMI): 15%
Are the lows in for British American Tobacco (BAT)? Are the downside risks fully priced in? Which price action will we see first? A new 52-week low or a move above MA200?
– A move above MA200 ($35/£28): 57%
– A new 52-week low ($28/£23): 43%
Which tobacco major will deliver the best Total Shareholder Return (price appreciation plus dividends) in the next 12 months?
– BAT: 63%
– PMI: 24%
– Altria: 9%
– Imperial Brands: 4%
What is your 12-month PMI share price target?
– Below $90: 28%
– $90-$100: 33%
– $100-$110: 24%
– Above $110: 15%
Implied price target: $97.5
Sell-side analyst target: $112
What is your 12-month BAT share price target? (£/$: 1.20)
– Below $30 (£25): 23%
– $30-$36 (£25-£30): 45%
– $36-$42 (£30-£35): 20%
– Above $42 (£35): 12%
Implied price target: $34.3 (£28.2)
Sell-side analyst target: $42.8 (£35.2)
Should British American Tobacco (BAT) reconsider its capital allocation?
– Reduce the dividend and use the excess cash to reduce debt: 36%
– Reduce the dividend and use the excess cash for share re-purchase: 30%
– Keep the dividend: 30%
– Reduce the dividend and use the excess cash in investments (R&D/Capex): 4%
What is your headline from the PMI’s 2023 Investor Day?
– PMI aims to become a more than two-thirds majority smoke-free company by 2030: 43%
– Philip Morris develops zero-tobacco heatstick that may avoid regulations: 23%
– Philip Morris signals slower US roll out for IQOS: 19%
– Philip Morris CEO says 2025 smoke-free target is out of reach (delayed by a few quarters): 16%
