Main Trend: Global tobacco leaf markets were tight between mid-2022 and 2024, with limited supply driving higher leaf prices. At the same time, rising agricultural input costs further increased procurement expenses, inflating tobacco companies’ cost of goods sold (COGS) and putting pressure on gross profit margins. Since 2025, improved crop yields and normalized supply conditions have eased the imbalance, stabilizing leaf prices on a per-unit basis and reducing cost pressures across the industry.
September 2026: Tobacco Farming Continues Shift to Africa Amid Global Decline
Global tobacco-leaf production fell by nearly 19% between 2012 and 2024, yet raw leaf cultivation is increasingly shifting toward Africa. While worldwide output dropped, African tobacco-leaf production expanded by almost 9% over the same period, surpassing 639,000 tonnes in 2024. The continent now represents approximately 11% of total global tobacco-leaf output.
This agricultural activity is heavily localized. East Africa alone accounts for nearly 90% of the continent’s raw tobacco output. Production remains strictly concentrated within five nations – Zimbabwe, Malawi, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Uganda, in descending order. Despite these growing crop yields, raw leaf exports remain a primary macroeconomic driver for only a handful of nations; tobacco exports exceed 1% of GDP in just a few economies, led by Malawi and Zimbabwe.
The shift in raw leaf farming coincides with a growing commercial divide. While African farms supply more raw tobacco to the global supply chain, the continent’s appetite for imported finished goods has surged. Between 2012 and 2024, Africa’s cigarette import bill more than doubled, rising from US$ 833 million to US$ 1.77 billion. The trend underscores a double exposure: expanding local land use for agricultural exports alongside expanding expenditures on imported tobacco products.
July 2026: U.S. Tariffs and Rebounding Global Supply Cool Brazilian Tobacco Exports
Brazilian tobacco exports experienced a notable pullback in both volume and value during the first half of 2026. According to official data from Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (MDIC) and the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX), overall tobacco exports fell 15.9% year-over-year to 173,600 metric tons. Export revenues felt an even sharper sting, declining 21.4% to $1.07 billion over the same period.
Historically, the United States has been a cornerstone market for Brazilian tobacco, routinely accounting for about 9% of the country’s total exports. However, newly implemented U.S. tariffs are actively eroding Brazil’s competitive edge. These higher duties are trickling down the supply chain – disrupting industrial planning, forcing renegotiations of commercial contracts, and squeezing local growers’ incomes. The impact on trade with the U.S. is stark; Brazilian tobacco exports to the U.S. fell 23.4% to $195.3 million (down from $255 million in 2024). The downward trend quickened in the first half of this year, with shipments to the U.S. plunging another 31% year-over-year to $88.8 million.
While the U.S. remains a top-tier destination for Brazilian tobacco – alongside Belgium, China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Turkey -American policy is not the industry’s only hurdle. A broader rebound in global tobacco supplies, following a period of acute international shortages, has saturated markets, intensified global competition, and driven down unit prices.
Faced with these dual pressures, SindiTabaco, the primary Brazilian tobacco association, expects the market to normalize. The group projects that total exports for 2026 will settle near their five-year average of $2.6 billion – a healthy baseline, though a significant retreat from the historic record of $3.4 billion set in 2025.
March 2026: Brazilian Tobacco Exports Reach Record High in 2025
Brazil achieved a record level of tobacco export revenue in 2025, reinforcing its leading position in the global market. According to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services (MDIC), export value rose to US$3.38 billion, a 13.9% increase from US$2.97 billion in 2024. This performance surpassed the previous record of US$3.27 billion set in 2012. The result highlights the sector’s strategic importance to Brazil’s trade balance and to the economy of the Southern Region, which remains the country’s primary tobacco-producing and export hub.
Export volumes also increased significantly. In 2025, Brazil shipped 561,000 tonnes of tobacco to 121 countries, up 23.2% from 455,200 tonnes in the previous year. However, revenue growth lagged behind volume expansion due to a decline in average prices. The average export price fell from US$6.54 per kilogram in 2024 to approximately US$6.04 per kilogram in 2025, a decrease of about 7.6%. In other words, Brazil sold more tobacco, but at a lower average price.
Brazil has maintained its position as the world’s largest tobacco exporter since 1993. Over the past five years, annual exports have averaged around 515,000 tonnes, generating approximately US$2.6 billion in revenue. This consistency is closely linked to the country’s Integrated Tobacco Production System, established under Brazil’s Integration Law. The framework regulates contracts between tobacco companies and growers, specifying volumes, product types, and technical standards. By aligning production with global demand in both quantity and quality, the system helps sustain the international competitiveness of Brazilian tobacco.
In terms of destination markets, Europe remained the largest importer in 2025, accounting for 41% of total export value. The Far East followed with 36%. Africa and the Middle East represented 8%, while North America and Latin America each accounted for 6%. Eastern Europe made up the remaining 3%.
February 2026: Zimbabwe’s Tobacco Output Set to Break Records in 2026
Zimbabwe is poised to surpass its previous tobacco production record, with 2026 output projected to exceed 360 million kilograms, up from 355 million kilograms in 2025. The increase reflects a combination of expanded planting and greater participation by farmers, who are dedicating more land to tobacco cultivation than in previous seasons. Favorable weather conditions and ongoing support from government and industry programs have also contributed to the strong outlook, reinforcing tobacco’s position as one of the country’s most important agricultural commodities.
Tobacco remains a critical source of foreign currency earnings, providing much-needed revenue to support Zimbabwe’s fragile economy. The country exports much of its crop to major markets in Asia and Europe, where demand for high-quality flue-cured tobacco remains steady. While global tobacco prices have fluctuated in recent years, Zimbabwe’s producers continue to benefit from the crop’s strategic value in foreign trade. The projected record output highlights both the resilience of Zimbabwe’s tobacco industry and the country’s continued reliance on this sector to generate revenue and sustain rural livelihoods.
August 2025: Zimbabwe Reports Record Tobacco Sales Volume
Zimbabwe’s tobacco sales volume increased 53% to 352.7 million kilograms. Small-scale farmers produced 65% of the crop and c.45% of total production was sold to the Far East. From the low of 48.7 million kilograms in 2008, tobacco sales volume has gone up more than sevenfold.
Zimbabwe collaborates with international partners, particularly China, to increase tobacco production to 500 million kilograms through economic-viable, sustainable practices – with focus on environmentally-friendly cultivation methods, efficient processing and innovative marketing techniques. Tobacco sector is critically important to Zimbabwe’s economy; in 2024, tobacco exports generated US$1.3 billion and accounted for c.30% of total exports. Tobacco is the country’s leading agricultural export, a major source of foreign currency, and a significant contributor to Gross Domestic Product.
.June 2025: Turkish Tobacco Exports Hit $1 billion for the First-time in 7 years
Turkey’s total tobacco exports reached $1,004 million in twelve months to May 2025, up +9.7% from $915 million in the previous period. The is the highest 12-month export figure recorded in seven years, mainly driven by price increases.
Turkey’s regulatory requirement, mandating a minimum 30% domestic tobacco content in all cigarettes produced in the country starting from 2025, has been a major factor influencing local production trends. The new requirement resulted in a notable increase in the cultivation of large-leaf varieties, particularly Virginia and Burley tobacco (as opposed to the traditional Oriental tobacco). Of the country’s total 73 million kilograms of tobacco production, 30 million kilograms (41%) now come from these large-leaf types. While currently used in domestic production, these leaf variants are likely to contribute to export volumes in the future as the leaf quality improves. The shift is also expected to drive up overall production, potentially reaching 80 million kilograms by the end of 2025.
February 2025: Zimbabwe’s Annual Tobacco Exports Reach US$1.4 billion
Zimbabwe’s annual tobacco exports increased 10% from US$1.3 billion in 2023 to US$1.43 billion in 2024. Partly or wholly stemmed/striped tobacco accounted for 92% of the exports in value and fetched a record price of US$7.2 per kilogram (x 181 million kilograms). Zimbabwe is among the top-5 leaf exporters in Africa alongside with Tanzania, Malawi, Uganda and Zambia.
January 2025: India’s Annual Tobacco Exports are Likely to Cross US$1.5 billion
India’s tobacco exports are expected to grow by more than +8% and cross US$1.5 billion (₹13,000 crore) in FY24/25. India is the second largest producer of tobacco in the world after China and is the fourth largest producer of Flue-Cured Virginia (FCV) tobacco in the world after China, Brazil and Zimbabwe.
The Indian Government regulates the production and aims to maintain the level of production at around 270 million kg. The Tobacco Board, established in 1976, oversees the development of the tobacco industry and supports 80,000-85,000 registered farmers. In FY23/24, India produced 300 million kg of tobacco and exported ₹12 thousand crore (US$1.4 billion) worth of tobacco. Export price of Flue Cured Virginia (FCV) from India has more than doubled in the past four years, from ₹124 (US$1.8) per kg in 2019-20 to ₹280 (US$3.4) in 2023-24.
October 2024: Brazilian Tobacco Exports Set to Reach US$3 billion in 2024
According to the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services, 316 thousand tons of tobacco were shipped in the January – September 2024 period, which represents -14% decline compared to the same period in 2023. Excessive rainfall during the period was the main cause of the reduction in the volume of the harvest. However, the value of shipments grew +3.4% to US$2.03 billion. Accordingly, the average price for the Brazilian leaf increased by 20% from $5.3 to $6.4 per kilo. In 2023, Brazil exported 512 thousand tons of tobacco, worth US$ 2.73 billion, to 107 importing countries. European Union (EU) imported 42% of the Brazilian leaf with Belgium emerging as the top EU destination. China, the United States, Indonesia and Egypt are also among the largest importers.
Tobacco Industry Union, SindiTabaco, expects the Brazilian tobacco exports to surpass the US$3 billion level in 2024 if the trends continue. The record exports come with 10%-15% drop in volume and 20%-25% increase in per kilo prices.
September 2024: Price of Malawi-sourced tobacco is up 26.5% in 2024
Malawi recorded a 40% increase in tobacco sales in the 2024 season as the tobacco crop proved resilient against an El Nino-induced drought1. The Malawi Tobacco Commission (TC) said sales volumes had increased 10% during the season, which runs from April to August. Malawi is one of the biggest producers of burley tobacco in the world and tobacco is Malawi’s biggest export commodity.
The TC said in its final season report that sales from the leaf increased to $396.3 million, up from $283.8 the previous year. Over the same period, volumes increased to 133.1 million kilograms from 120.5 million kilograms. Consequently, the average price per kilogram increased 26.5% from US$2.36 to US$2.98.
September 2024: Leaf Inflation Hits 14%-15% in 2024, According to Imperial Brands
Imperial Brands expects 14%-15% lead inflation in FY24. COGS is ~30% of Imperial’s net revenue and leaf is ~30% of the COGS; thereby, leaf costs correspond to ~9% of the Company’s net revenue. In FY25, Imperial expects lower leaf inflation, but no deflation (i.e. no decrease in per kilogram price). Cigar business faces an even higher inflationary pressure due to the use of premium leaves in production. Nevertheless, the ability to pass over the COGS inflation to the consumer is also higher due to the relatively greater purchasing power of the consumer base.
