Every Sunday, we run a quick poll on the hottest subject in the Tobacco Industry. Hundreds of our Twitter/X followers vote, offering a collective wisdom on the subject matter or an immediate pulse on the market/industry developments.
Results of the Sunday polls:
Which tobacco major will deliver the best Total Shareholder Return (price appreciation plus dividends) in the next 12 months?
– BAT: 69%
– PMI: 16%
– Altria: 9%
– Imperial Brands: 6%
Note: Repeating the October 29, 2023 Poll
Sunday Poll: Does Philip Morris International (PMI) understate the regulatory, fiscal and social risks surrounding ZYN and IQOS?
– Yes (PMI understates): 55%
– No (PMI provides reasonable, comprehensive and timely risk assessments): 45%
Both BAT and Altria sold shares of their main associates (ITC & Anheuser-Busch InBev) to buy back their own shares. Are these smart or ill-conceived moves? In terms of (1) Rationale/need to divest (2) Use of proceeds
– Both smart: 43%
– BAT smart, Altria ill-conceived: 39%
– Both ill-conceived: 12%
– Altria smart, BAT ill-conceived: 5%
Which one is the most valuable nicotine brand in the world? (considering a 20-year time horizon)
– Marlboro: 34%
– IQOS: 31%
– Zyn: 21%
– Vuse: 14%
How will the recent developments surrounding ZYN in the US play out for PMI?
– Too early to tell: 43%
– No impact: 31%
– Some regulatory & fiscal measures and social backlash leading to lower growth: 18%
– Major legal settlement and/or asset impairment charges for PMI (from growth to decline): 8%
Which piece of news from PMI’s CAGNY presentation did you like the most?
– No slow-down in IQOS growth: 48%
– Commitment to deliver growth in US$ terms: 22%
– Nothing: 21%
– Share gains in e-vapor (select markets): 10%
Would you support BAT selling its entire ITC stake ($17.6Bn) to acquire Imperial Brands ($20.4Bn)? Swapping a disconnected fast-growth business with a waning cash cow (~$3Bn FCF in FY23) that can be fully integrated (cost savings)
– No: 65%
– Yes: 35%
Do you support BAT’s plan to reduce its ITC stake?
– Yes: 57%
– No: 43%
Re-initiation of the share repurchase program is the most anticipated announcement for BAT’s FY23 Earnings release. Should BAT re-initiate share buybacks or continue to focus on debt reduction?
– Continue to reduce debt: 51%
– Re-initiate share buybacks: 49%
BAT will release the FY23 results on February 8, 2024. How will the share price react?
– No significant move ($30/£23.5): 45%
– Move above MA200 ($32/£25.5): 31%
– New 52-week low ($28/£22): 24%
PMI will release the FY23 results on February 8, 2024. Shares are stuck in $88-$100 range since the Q1 2023 release (April 2023). How will the share price react?
– No significant move: 65%
– New 52-week low (<$88): 19%
– Move above $100: 16%
Altria will release its Q4 2023 results on February 1, 2024 (Thursday). How will the stock react?
– Next Leg Down: 43%
– No significant move: 42%
– Relief Rally: 15%
What will be the US cigarette market share of IQOS in 2032 (i.e. five years after nationwide expansion)?
– Less than 5%: 21%
– 5%-10%: 28%
– 10%-20%: 28%
– More than 20%: 23%
Which e-cigarette flavors should Regulators permit?
– All flavors (including sweet & fruity): 75%
– Only Menthol & Tobacco: 11%
– All non-sweet/fruity flavors (coffee, clove, star anise, etc. in addition to menthol & tobacco): 7%
– Only Tobacco: 7%
What will be the most important event for the Tobacco Industry in 2024?
– E-cigarette clampdown (US & elsewhere): 32%
– Menthol ban in the US: 28%
– IQOS launch in the US: 28%
– An unpredictable event (that will turn out to be more important than the events listed above): 12%
