Ahead of Q3 2025 Earnings release
Release date: October 30, 2025 (before the opening bell)
Revenue: $5.29 billion expected (-1% vs. $5.344Bn in Q3 2024)
EPS: $1.44 expected (+4.4% vs. $1.38 in Q3 2024)
Latest guidance: FY25 adjusted diluted EPS in a range of $5.35 to $5.45, representing a growth of 3% to 5% from a base of $5.19 in 2024
Q3 2025 Results1
Q3 2025 Revenue: $5.25Bn (expected $5.29Bn; down 1.7% vs. $5.344Bn in Q3 2024)
Q3 2025 EPS: $1.45 (expected $1.44; up +5.9% vs. $1.38 in Q3 2024)
FY25 Guidance: EPS in a range of $5.37 to $5.45, representing a growth rate of 3.5% to 5% from $5.19 in 2024 (previously, $5.35 to $5.45; lower-end upped by ¢2)
Business Segment: Smokable
– Cigarette volume decreased by -8.2% (down -9% on an adjusted basis), driven by the industry’s decline (down -8% on an adjusted basis; impacted by macroeconomic pressures on discretionary income and the growth of illicit e-vapor products) and retail share losses, partially offset by trade inventory movements
– Marlboro retail share: 40.4% (down -1.2pp vs. Q3 2024 and -0.6pp sequentially)
– Marlboro share of the premium segment: 59.6% (up +0.3pp vs. Q3 2024 and +0.1pp sequentially)
– Altria retail share: 45.4% (down -0.3pp vs. Q3 2024, up +0.2pp sequentially); targeted deployment of Basic brand [to attract consumers impacted by macroeconomic pressures on discretionary income] is supportive of Altria SoM
– Average Marlboro net price: $9.74 (+$0.66 or +7.3% versus previous year)
– Wholesale Inventory: 2.5 billion sticks at the end of Q3 2025 (vs. 2.2 billion sticks Q3 2024; +0.3 billion sticks inventory build-up)
– Cigar volume increased by +2%
Business Segment: Smokeless
– Oral tobacco shipment volume: down -9.6% (down -5.5% adjusted), driven by retail share losses (to ZYN and VELO) and trade inventory movements, despite the category growth (up +14.5% in the past six months, driven by growth in nicotine pouches, partially offset by declines in MST)
– Oral tobacco retail share: 31.1% (down -6.1pp, due to Copenhagen & Skoal share losses)
– On! retail share: 8.7% (-0.1pp vs. Q3 2024 and sequentially)
– The U.S. nicotine pouch category: 55.7% of the U.S. oral tobacco category in Q3 2025 (+11.1pp vs. Q3 2024)
– On! shipment volume: +0.7% to 42.2 million cans in Q3 2025 (ZYN shipment volume up +37% to 205 million cans in the same period)
– On!’s share of the nicotine pouch category: 15.6% (-4.1pp vs. Q3 2024)
– Recently launched premium, differentiated on! PLUS product in Florida, North Carolina and Texas in mint, wintergreen and tobacco flavors, each with 6mg, 9mg and 12mg nicotine strengths
Business Segment: E-vapor & Heated tobacco
– Completed the product design of a modified ACE solution that addresses all four disputed patents. Evaluating potential pathways to bring the modified ACE product to market
– NJOY and JUUL initiated new litigation against one another in Q3 2025. NJOY and JUUL each initiated
litigation in Federal court and before the U.S. International Trade Commission (no outcome expected before 2027)
– Illicit/flavored disposable vape represent more than 60% of the category. 20.9 million vapers (+1.9 million or 10% yoy), 71% of which use disposable vapes (+5.5pp yoy). Enforcement actions against illicit vapes picking up speed
– Submitted a combined premarket tobacco product application (PMTA) and modified risk tobacco product (MRTP) application to the U.S. FDA for Ploom and Marlboro heated tobacco sticks in August 2025
Capital Allocation
– Dividend payments: $1.7 billion in Q3 2025 ($5.2 billion in YTD2025)
– Share repurchases: 1.9 million shares for $112 million in Q3 2025 (average price: $60.13 per share). 12.3 million shares for $712 million in YTD2025 (average price: $58.08 per share). Existing share repurchase program (SRP) expanded from $1 billion to $2 billion, which now expires on December 31, 2026. $1,288 million remaining under the authorized $2 billion SRP
– Leverage: 2.0x debt-to-EBITDA ratio as of September 30, 2025
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